REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL REPORTING INDICATORS FOR MEDICAL SERVICES
Keywords:
financial reporting, regression analysis, elasticity, forecasting, backtesting, healthcare services, public sector institution, depreciationAbstract
This article measures the relationships among the financial reporting indicators of a state medical institution providing healthcare services using regression models and develops forecasts for the period 2026–2028. The empirical database consists of the institution’s 2019–2025 budget expenditure execution reports, financial performance statements, balance sheets, and non–financial asset movement reports, as well as 15 object–year observations from four healthcare institutions. Five regression models were estimated: a log–linear trend model, an expenditure elasticity model, a revenue–expenditure relationship model, a depreciation accumulation model, and a panel data model. The findings indicate that actual expenditures increased by 16.37% annually in nominal terms and by 5.78% in real terms (R²=0.967). Labor remuneration exhibits unit elasticity with respect to total expenditures (β=1.010), while utility services (2.313), pharmaceuticals (1.501), and inventories (1.142) were identified as expansionary expenditure categories, whereas food expenditures (0.586) were classified as a contractionary category. Expenditures on fixed asset acquisition showed no statistically significant relationship with total expenditures. The estimated slope coefficient of total expenditures relative to total revenues is 0.982, indicating that additional revenues are almost entirely spent within the current fiscal year. Annual depreciation accounts for 13.7% of the gross value of fixed assets at the end of the previous year. Models estimated using 2019–2024 data generated forecasts for 2025 with an average forecasting error of 7.09% and outperformed the naïve benchmark model (Theil’s U=0.659). All observed values fell within the 95% prediction interval. According to the forecasts, actual expenditures are expected to range between UZS 30.5–31.9 billion in 2026 and UZS 37.6–43.2 billion in 2028. If the gross value of fixed assets grows at an annual rate below 10%, the depreciation rate is projected to reach 78–88% by 2028.
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