TIBBIY XIZMATLAR BO‘YICHA MOLIYAVIY HISOBOT KO‘RSATKICHLARINING REGRESSION TAHLILI
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moliyaviy hisobot, regressiya tahlili, elastiklik, prognoz, orqaga sinov, tibbiy xizmatlar, budjet tashkiloti, eskirish##article.abstract##
Maqolada tibbiy xizmat ko‘rsatuvchi davlat tibbiyot tashkilotining moliyaviy hisobot ko‘rsatkichlari o‘rtasidagi bog‘lanishlar regressiya modellari yordamida o‘lchanadi va 2026–2028–yillar uchun prognoz tuziladi. Empirik baza muassasaning 2019–2025–yillardagi xarajatlar smetasi ijrosi, moliyaviy natijalar, balans va nomoliyaviy aktivlar harakati hisobotlaridan hamda to‘rt tibbiyot tashkiloti bo‘yicha o‘n besh obyekt–yil kuzatuvidan iborat. Beshta model baholandi: log–chiziqli trend, xarajat moddalarining elastikligi, daromad–xarajat bog‘lanishi, eskirishning to‘planish tezligi va panel model. Natijalarga ko‘ra haqiqiy xarajat nominal ifodada yiliga 16,37 foizga, real ifodada 5,78 foizga o‘sgan (R²=0,967). Mehnatga haq to‘lash umumiy xarajat bilan birlik elastiklikda harakatlanadi (β=1,010), kommunal xizmatlar (2,313), dori vositalari (1,501) va moddiy zaxiralar (1,142) kengayuvchi, oziq–ovqat (0,586) torayuvchi modda sifatida baholandi, asosiy vositalar xaridi esa umumiy xarajat bilan bog‘lanmagan. Xarajatlar jamining daromadlar jamiga nisbatan qiyaligi 0,982 ga teng bo‘lib, qo‘shimcha daromad deyarli to‘liq joriy yilda sarflanadi. Yillik eskirish o‘tgan yil oxiridagi yalpi qiymatning 13,7 foizini tashkil etadi. 2019–2024–yillar ma’lumotida baholangan modellar 2025–yil uchun o‘rtacha 7,09 foizli xato bilan prognoz berdi va sodda modeldan aniqroq chiqdi (Teyl U=0,659), barcha haqiqiy qiymatlar 95 foizli oraliqqa tushdi. Prognozga ko‘ra haqiqiy xarajat 2026–yilda 30,5–31,9 mlrd.so‘m, 2028–yilda 37,6–43,2 mlrd. so‘m oralig‘ida bo‘ladi, yalpi qiymat yiliga 10 foizdan sekin o‘ssa, eskirish darajasi 2028–yilga borib 78–88 foizga yetadi.
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